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1973 oil crisis essay

1973 oil crisis essay1973 oil crisis essay -Also, the value of the currency has dropped, making it difficult for Venezuela to afford food and other products on international markets.Another approach would be to deliver the package using a truck, operated by some form of petroleum.Most of the slides in this presentation use new BP data, through 2016.For example, if cars can no longer be used, it would be difficult to transition back to horses.This order of events strongly suggests that rising energy consumption is a major cause of world GDP growth.Also, we do not have the facilities in cities to “park” the horses and to handle the manure, if everyone were to commute using horses. In the past, many local civilizations have grown for a while, and then collapsed.It is clear from Figure 1 that adding electricity from renewables (primarily wind and solar) does not make much difference for China, no matter how wind and solar are counted.We don’t have very good evaluations of GDP amounts for 20.Since 2014, very low oil prices have allowed tourism to rebound. But Spain is still far below its peak in energy consumption in 2007 (top chart on Slide 8), indicating that job opportunities and spending by its citizens are still low.This happens because with growing wage disparity, many of the workers cannot afford to pay much in taxes.We hear much about rising manufacturing in the Far East.Oil and coal use have not come back to anywhere near their earlier level.Another problem is greater susceptibility to epidemics, because after-tax income of many workers is not sufficient to afford an adequate diet.Notice that after the Soviet Union collapsed, the consumption of coal, oil and gas collapsed at the same time, over a period of years.Venezuela is often in the news because of its inability to afford to import enough food for its population.Eventually, the individual member countries were able to function on their own.If they are counted in a realistic manner, they truly add little to China’s energy use. If we look at the major parts of world energy consumption, we see that oil (including biofuels) is the largest.Slide 9 shows how rapidly energy consumption–especially coal–has risen in India.A copy of the presentation can be found at this link: The Next Financial Crisis.As new layers (including new products, laws, and consumers) are added, old ones are removed.1973 oil crisis essayThey wanted to know when it would be and how it would take place.If we look closely at Slide 12, we can see that drops in energy consumption tend to precede drops in world GDP; rises in energy consumption tend to precede rises in world GDP.In Slide 2, I illustrate the economy as hollow because we keep adding new layers of the economy on top of the old layers.It is still growing, but it is growing less rapidly than world population.At this point, growth flattens out, and wage disparity and growing debt become greater problems.At some point, the efforts to keep growing the economy to match rising population become unsuccessful, and collapse sets in.I have not shown a chart with total world energy consumption.The growth in world energy consumption (blue line) tends to be a little lower than the growth in GDP (red line), because of efficiency gains over time.The amount of backup generating capacity required is virtually unchanged.As nearly as I can tell, one of the major contributing factors to the collapse of the Soviet Union was low oil prices. As oil prices fell, the government could not collect sufficient taxes. The collapse from low oil prices did not happen immediately–it took several years after the drop in oil prices.China’s energy consumption grew very rapidly after it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.Most people are not aware of the extreme “power” given by energy products.The credits given for wind and solar are only 38% as much as those given in the BP methodology.Figure 1 shows a chart I made for China, comparing three totals: (1) Opt.Wind and solar are included using BP’s optimistic approach for counting intermittent renewables, so growth rates for recent years are slightly overstated.(2) Likely totals – Wind and solar are assumed to replace only the fuel that creates high quality electricity.In 2013, however, China’s coal consumption hit a peak and began to decline.Once oil prices dropped (as they have done, especially since 2014), tourism tended to rebound and the financial situation became less dire.These included (a) Closing many electricity-generating plants using oil, and replacing them with other generation.(3) From chart – Mazamascience totals, omitting renewable sources of electricity, other than hydroelectric. 1973 oil crisis essay “Energy consumption per capita” is calculated as world energy consumption divided by world population.When the price of oil was high, it adversely affected tourism.Workers are likely becoming more productive, because the additional energy per capita allows the use of more and larger machines (including computers) to leverage human labor. With higher incomes, workers can afford to buy an increasing amount of goods and services.Taxes can rise, so it is possible for governments to provide the services that citizens desire, such as healthcare and pensions.It might be noted that the charts I am showing (from Mazamascience) do not include renewable energy (including wind and solar, plus burned garbage and other “renewables”) used to produce electricity.India is an example of a country where manufacturing has risen in recent years.Thus, world economic growth may already be lower than reported amounts.(The charts do include ethanol and other biofuels within the “oil” category, however.) The omission of wind and solar does not appear to make a material difference, however.One estimate is that a single gallon of gasoline is equivalent to 500 hours of human labor.Often resources start to degrade as well–for example, soil erosion may become a problem.I have talked about this subject in various forms before, but not since 2016 energy production and consumption data became available.If coal is historically the least expensive fuel, this is likely a problem.It is true that individual countries can experience lower consumption of energy products, if they begin outsourcing major manufacturing to other countries as they did after the Kyoto Protocol was signed in 1997.Slide 14 – Note: Energy percentage increases include all energy sources shown by BP.Slide 3 shows that on an inflation-adjusted basis, world oil prices hit a high point first in 2008, and again in 2011.Businesses can expand to serve the growing population, and the increasingly wealthy customers.total (Optimistic total) – Totals on the basis BP computes wind and solar.A second drop in consumption (and recession) occurred in the late 1970s and early 1980s, when easy-to-adopt changes were made to cut oil usage and increase efficiency.Energy comes in many forms, including sunlight, human energy, animal energy, and fossil fuels.One of the reasons for Venezuela’s problems is that with low oil prices, the country has been unable to collect sufficient tax revenue. 1973 oil crisis essay When this happened, the government of the Soviet Union disappeared, but the governments of the individual states within the Soviet Union remained.This has been made possible by the availability of both inexpensive coal supplies and inexpensive labor.Recently, a Spanish group called “Ecologist in Action” asked me to give them a presentation on what kind of financial crisis we should expect.But it doesn’t change the world’s need for growing energy consumption, if the world economy is to grow.Eventually, unless the group can find a way of increasing the amount of food and other needed goods produced each year (such as finding a way to get food and other materials from territories in other parts of the world, or conquering another local civilization and taking their land), the civilization is headed for collapse.The earliest period shown, 1968 to 1972, had the highest annual growth in energy consumption–over 3% per year–back when oil prices were under $20 per barrel, and thus were quite affordable.The answer I had for the group is that we should expect financial collapse quite soon–perhaps as soon as the next few months.In today’s world, energy in the form of electricity or petroleum makes possible the many things we think of as technology.Our problem is energy related, but not in the way that most Peak Oil groups describe the problem.We can look back over the years and see when energy consumption rose and fell.(See Slide 5 for a history of inflation-adjusted price levels.) Once prices spiked in the 1973-1974 period, much of the world entered recession, and energy consumption per capita barely rose.But total energy consumption still has still tended to decline (top “stacked” chart on Slide 7), indicating that the country is not yet doing well. By the mid-2000s, high oil prices made Spain less competitive in the world market, leading to falling job opportunities and less energy consumption.This is why we can’t necessarily use a prior energy approach.For example, it is possible for a human to deliver a package, by walking and carrying the package in his hands.The severe problems that China has had with pollution from coal may also have played a role.A recent partial collapse of a local civilization was the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.It is much more related to the election of President Trump and to the Brexit vote.If this amount is growing, an economy is in some sense becoming more capable of producing goods and services, and thus is becoming wealthier.The reason I call this a partial collapse is because the rest of the world was still functioning, so nearly all of the population remained, and the cutback in fuel consumption was just partial.This was a somewhat local drop in energy consumption, allowing the rest of the world to continue to grow in its use of energy. 1973 oil crisis essay Most of the slides in this presentation use new BP data, through 2016. 1973 oil crisis essay




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